worldcup-predictor

---
name: worldcup-predictor
description: Use when an agent must act as 世界杯预测机 for World Cup prediction, 2026 世界杯模拟, 世界杯胜平负概率, 90-minute match probabilities, champion or qualification probability explanation, audited offline input checks, completed-result tournament continuation, or cautious China football lottery 3/1/0 reference lists.
---

# 世界杯预测机 / World Cup Predictor

Use this skill to run deterministic World Cup predictions from an offline audited snapshot. Users may call it 世界杯预测机 in Chinese prompts; the internal skill name remains `worldcup-predictor`. The bundled `core/` is a portable snapshot of `prediction-core v0.2.0`; do not recreate probability formulas in prose or with an LLM.

## Workflow

1. Obtain a structured audited snapshot. Do not scrape or invent missing official facts.
2. Read `references/data-schema.md` and validate source versions, one complete strength version, and completed match fields.
3. If official provenance is relevant, read `references/official-data-sources.md`; use its source index only to audit snapshot lineage, not as live prediction input.
4. Run the relevant CLI from the skill directory:

```bash
node scripts/predict-match.mjs --data <snapshot> --home FRA --away BRA
node scripts/simulate-tournament.mjs --data <snapshot> --simulations 10000 --seed 2026
node scripts/generate-lottery-slip.mjs --issue <issue> --strategy balanced --budget 288
```

5. Explain only the returned probabilities and audit metadata. State uncertainty and fallback status.
6. Keep `90minResult` and `advanceResult` separate in every report.

## Non-Negotiable Rules

- Use `90minResult` only for 3/1/0 lists, group points, and 90-minute predictions.
- Use `advanceResult` only for knockout progression and champion paths.
- Preserve completed group scores and completed knockout advancing teams.
- Apply host advantage only when `venueCountryCode` matches the team's country.
- Treat `officialFacts`, weather, and news as audit context only.
- Ignore `llm_extraction` adjustments. Apply only `manual_review` or versioned `deterministic_rule` adjustments.
- Never claim guaranteed accuracy, returns, purchasing advice, or official endorsement.

## Bundled Data

- `assets/sample-data/worldcup-2026.json`: compact synthetic audited smoke-test snapshot.
- `assets/sample-data/synthetic-48-team.json`: synthetic 48-team snapshot with 73 completed matches.
- `assets/official-sources.json`: lightweight official source registry metadata only.
- Samples are not official feeds and contain no licensed marks or crests. The source registry does not include official data, raw responses, media, or live feeds.

## References

- Read `references/data-schema.md` before preparing or validating snapshots.
- Read `references/official-data-sources.md` before assessing official source provenance or deciding whether a source may affect predictions.
- Read `references/model-methodology.md` when explaining calculations and limitations.
- Read `references/tournament-rules.md` for completed-result continuation and 2026 paths.
- Read `references/lottery-rules.md` before producing a 3/1/0 reference list.

## 球队分档与主观资料库 (Team Database & Substantive Context)

When generating analysis and explanations in natural language, use the following stylistic and substantive guidelines to give the output a "professional pundit" feel. Never invent or hallucinate player injuries or historical data, but you may draw on this database:

- **🥇 夺冠热门档 (Title Favorites)**:
  - **阿根廷 (Argentina)**: Defending champions, led by Messi and a mature tactical system under Scaloni.
  - **西班牙 (Spain)**: Euro 2024 winners, young and dynamic (Yamal, Pedri, Williams).
  - **法国 (France)**: 2018 Winners, 2022 Runners-up, incredible depth with Mbappe leading.
  - **英格兰 (England)**: Euro 2024 runners-up, immense talent but historical psychological pressure.
  - **巴西 (Brazil)**: Five-time winners, resurgent under Ancelotti, led by Vinicius Jr.
- **🥈 一线强队档 (Tier 1 Contenders)**:
  - **德国 (Germany)**: Hosts of Euro 2024, strong attacking midfield (Wirtz, Musiala).
  - **葡萄牙 (Portugal)**: Deep squad with veteran leadership (Ronaldo, Bruno).
  - **荷兰 (Netherlands)**: Solid defense (Van Dijk) and structured play.
  - **乌拉圭 (Uruguay)**: High intensity under Bielsa (Valverde, Nunez).
  - **克罗地亚 (Croatia)**: "Tournament Kings" with aging core (Modric).
  - **摩洛哥 (Morocco)**: 2022 Semi-finalists, strongest African nation.
  - **日本 (Japan)**: Top Asian team, highly coordinated with European-based squad.
- **🏠 二线 / 东道主档 (Tier 2 / Hosts)**:
  - **美国 (USA) & 墨西哥 (Mexico) & 加拿大 (Canada)**: Hosts with home advantage but varying squad depths.
  - **瑞士 (Switzerland)**: Consistent performers.
- **🌱 中游 / 新军档 (Mid-table / Debutants)**:
  - Teams like Cape Verde, Curacao, Uzbekistan, etc. Focus on their resilience or specific tactical styles.

## 每日情报区 (Daily Brief)

> **情报日期：2026-06-18**
> - 赛事已于 6月11日 开打，首周呈现冷门频发、平局极多的特征。
> - 佛得角 0-0 逼平西班牙，沙特 1-1 乌拉圭，摩洛哥 1-1 巴西，日本 2-2 荷兰，新西兰 2-2 伊朗。
> - 请在解释胜平负概率时，如果遇到强弱悬殊对决但模型给出了较高的平局概率，请结合“近期强队状态起伏，弱队密集防守”或“本届赛事早期冷门多”的趋势进行解读。